Another big week for Sorare card releases! Since the last scouting report (Lille way back on August 30) there have been six (6!!!!!!) teams to (re)join the platform. Tuesday was Benfica; Wednesday both Bayern Leverkusen and River Plate; Thursday brought the return of Sporting CP and then the debut of Velez Sarsfield; Friday marked the third season of Olympique Lyonnais. I’ll be spending the long weekend writing up, editing and publishing as many scouting reports for those six teams as possible.
I will still be sending them as newsletters - and with apologies for perhaps hitting your inbox too frequently! - which may result in your email provider flagging these as spam/promotions. While you can always view these on site and use the Archive tab to search specific player and team names, it is very helpful to me and your fellow subscribers if you can tag these emails to your primary or focused in box. This helps ensure the future emails get through, thank you!
[NOTE: This post was originally published on 4 September 2021 for Subscribers only. It has not been updated but was made an Open Post on October 19.]
Division 5: Champion America
I do not have a good handle on Division 5 or Limited pricing. It is obvious that there are going to be fallow periods and there are going to be outlier spikes in prices. ‘Outlier’ here is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but generally I mean a price spike that can otherwise be explained by a sustained streak of SO5 scoring, a transfers (or non-transfer) shifting the perception of value, an injury, a coveted serial number, etc. That will also work the other way, but the low prices are obviously less concerning to the manager who’s paying the price. It’s in this area that patience, luck and persistence can pay off with a significant discount. It is also possible that Sorare is not growing its total userbase as much as it is growing card ownership from the existing userbase. I’m not aware of any place which publishes the data on the number of Common Cards issued or teams created apart from the number of teams entered in the Starter Rookie League (5231 this weekend).
In contrast to that 5231 in the Common league, there are just 426 managers in Champion America D5. (There are also 7008 GAS D4 teams, but that’s for a different post). At time of writing there is a Sorare Daily reader on the leaderboard, so that’s nice to see! But I remain surprised at the low number of entries. This weekend there are mostly World Cup qualifiers but Argentina (11 matches), Colombia (1), Brazil (2), J League (1) and MLSPA (9) are all in domestic action. Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Vissel Kobe is the only domestic match which is outside Champion America. There are literally hundreds of players in action that have Limited cards available in the primary and secondary markets.
And the prices seem less tethered to production than the Rare and Super Rare and the sheer volume of cards on the market make it possible to secure substantial savings for nearly any card. Do starting GK still cost a lot (proportionally)? Yes. But this week in particular you could have used Brad Knighton (NE) who scored 90 points and was sold for as little as 0.002 ETH in the days before Deadline. There is another round of MLSPA action this coming and there are other back-up GK who may get some run including Houston Dynamo’s Michael Nelson. Per Rotowire:
[Regulary starter Marko] Maric was a late addition to the injury report and Houston were forced to put Michael Nelson in net Sunday. Maric had started every match up until this injury and his status will have to be monitored in the next few days ahead of Friday's match against Portland.
Nelson, at age 25, isn’t quite the discount option the 36 year old Knighton is, but he is still a potential starter who could be had for about $35. But there are two players I’d like to highlight here because I think they each illustrate that the market for Limiteds is not set and there is plenty of room to build a highly competitive side in D5.
Those prices for Vancouver No. 2 (though presumed No. 1 Of The Future) Thomas Hasal are wild. That’s not a normal price spread. They make literally no sense. Here are Eduard
Meanwhile, for truly elite talent, the lack of demand is seeing the prices continue to slump. Understanding this is is the end of the MLS season, it is still surprising there isn’t more of a market for the upside, 100-point scoring Eduard Atuesta (age 24!).
This points can be had for an ever decreasing price. I have to say, I thought I had this one judged better with the purchase I made last week looking ahead to this match. I paid 0.022 ETH, which was on the low end. This morning one closed for 0.011 which came AFTER he posted his latest two-assist, one-goal, 100-point performance for LAFC.
I’ll still be covering Limited cards and D5 - particularly Challenger and Champion Europe for this season, but expect to see a lot of “be patient” and “there’s plenty of supply” until Sorare does exponentially grow the user base.
Scouting Bayer Leverkusen
I’m not ignoring Benfica, I just wanted to dive a bit deeper into Germany this week and so this one gets written-up first. I also will be publishing the two Portuguese teams back-to-back for better, deeper context around the prices.
Leverkusen’s 6th place finish was in line with recent results, and still the club’s lowest finish since a dreadful 12th place in 2016-17. Out this summer were Leon Bailey (9g, 8a) who led the club in g+a, left back Wendell who made 15 starts last term, and both Bender’s with Sven the more notable after making 14 starts a year ago. (Oh, and Demarai Gray who made five starts (1g, 2a) and likely will not be missed). Sitting 2nd on goal differential after the opening three matches, Leverkusen spent big on defenders this summer bringing in Odilon Kossonou (Club Brugge), Mitchel Bakker (PSG) and 19 year old Piero Hincapié (Talleres). The first two names have each slotted directly into the XI and have started each of the three Bundesliga matches this term. You’ll see more on them below.
Lukáš Hrádecký - GK, age 31
The 31 year old Finn enters his fourth season as a the No. 1 for Bayer 04. His last three seasons have presented a mixed bag but generally he’s improved his goals allowed per 90’ from 1.53 in 2018-19 to 1.02 in 2020-21.
The three seasons have brought 27 total clean sheets from 95 starts and he’s regularly in line with his post-shot expected goals, fluctuating from -4.1 in his debut season to +4.7 the next, and settling right on the nut (-0.2) last term. Nothing to dislike here, and he’s signed through 2023. Limited $250.67 0.066 ETH | Rare $2,038.45 0.528 ETH | SR 1/10 $4,565.83 1.290 ETH
Andrey Lunyov - GK, age 29
This is an odd one, unless the money was just too good to pass up. Lunyov has been in the mix as the No. 1 for Zenit these past five seasons, including 59 starts with 23 clean sheets in back-to-back-to-back years as Champions. Now he’s on the bench for Leverkusen and they must be happy to have such a solid second choice. That doesn’t do Sorare managers much good except as Next Man Up. Limited $28.27 0.008 ETH | Rare $160.55 0.041 ETH | SR 1/10 $279.20 0.079 ETH
Odilon Kossonou - Def, age 20
There’s nothing here not to love, but Sorare managers know that already. The 20 year old has proved outstanding value for Club Brugge making 24 starts last year after cracking the first team in his second season. The move to Germany comes with substantial expectation, and he’s already played every minute of league action. One goal, two assists in the full of last season. Super Rare 1/10 closes 8:00 CET / 2:00 am EST Sunday. Limited $91.15 0.024 ETH | Rare $765.50 0.193 ETH | Unique $23,521.93 6.285 ETH
Mitchel Bakker - Def, age 21
One summer to remake a defense and here we are. Bakker (21) and Odilon (20) figure to be among the first names on the squad sheet for years to come. The Dutch youth international has been a part of three title-winning sides, first with Ajax 2, then Ajax (well, he didn’t make an appearance), before moving to PSG where he started once 2019-20 and 18 times (with two assists) last season. That ended with Tomas Tuchel left, and he is now starting a five-year deal with the German side.
He has limited attacking upside, but does have significant AAS scores in his past. Limited $72.04 0.019 ETH | Rare $635.87 0.180 ETH | SR 1/10 $2,334.54 0.660 ETH
Jeremie Frimpong - Def, age 20
Another U23 defender making regular starts for Bayer, the former Man City and Celtic player has Championship pedigree, lifting the Scottish title with Celtic in 2019-20. That was his age 18 season when he made 12 starts, scoring two goals with an assist. His current SO5 scores are awful. That makes this a buy for the future and the hope he can build on minimal attacking returns. And don’t be fooled by the assist already this season but there are (small sample disclaimer) signs he’s turning it up. Last year he recorded 0.6 xA in 436’, this season he’s improved to 0.7 xA in 270’. Limited $41.78 0.011 ETH | $389.33 0.110 ETH | SR 1/10 $1,574.20 0.405 ETH
Jonathan Tah - Def, age 25
Let’s round out the starting back line! This is the first time I can recall where a club preview has included the full back four, but for 04 that seems appropriate. Tah, at age 25, is the elder stateman of the defense.
The other thing that sets Tah apart is that he’s been with Leverkusen since 2015-16 and has been a regular starter the whole time and he first cracked a Bundesliga starting XI at age 17 with Hamburger SV. Limited $45.94 0.013 ETH | Rare $343.32 0.097 ETH | SR 1/10 $1,996.34 0.565 ETH
Amine Adli - Mid, age 21
This is another new summer arrival to Germany. 21 year old Adli arrived from Toulouse in Ligue 2 for the second largest fee spent by Bayer 04 this summer (behind Kossonou) but has not yet cracked the first choice XI. He is a part of the squad and has one 7’ appearance so far. His career in France likely have the front office dreaming he’s the next Leon Bailey - like Bailey he’s shown deftness in scoring and creating goals. His breakthrough season in 2020-21 resulted in 8g, 7a from 2,507’ (33 apps, 29 starts). This is likely his settling in year, but the forward could be quite good for Sorare managers in the future. Sorare lists him as a MID and doesn’t have cards for him yet. So even if you liked his short-term potential, it’s available yet.
Kerem Demirbay - Mid, age 28
This is an overwhelming scouting report (via FBref).
With that type of skill and contribution across all three areas on the pitch, it’s not a surprise that he can hit the high highs. What is surprising is that he does not have a high floor - there is not enough in the mid-range of 45-55 points that makes Demirbay a value regular contributor in anything other than GAS D4 ETH grinder squads. That 78 he just posted on the back of a goal assist is only his fourth score above 54 points in his last 19.
I’m not paying over the odds for 4g, 3a (his returns last term) and we’re many years from his 6g, 8a season with Hoffenheim in his age 23 season.
Charles Aránguiz - Mid, age 32
Aránguiz has had an up and down career, never making more than 27 league starts in a single top flight season since moving to 04 from Internacional’s side in 2015-16. But he has been an ever-present part of the side, always making at least 20 starts. So where does this leave Sorare managers? His DNPs tend to streak and his scores don’t pop. His lone 100 is also one of just six scores north of 68 he’s ever posted. I’m not investing but I can see single-season value if you’re buying at prices less than these. Limited $28.77 0.0077 ETH | Rare $192.94 0.051 ETH
Joel Pohjanpalo - Fwd, age 26 (until next week)
There are eight (8) players on this team who are rated FWD by Sorare this season. In those names are the standout players Moussa Diaby and Patrik Schick. But it’s Joel Pohjanpalo who has the best last score because he hit a goal against (the lone goal for Finland in a 1-0 WC qualifier win). This is not the place to invest unless you’re specifically playing for internationals. I wouldn’t. Limited $11.39 0.003 ETH | Rare $94.72 0.0242 ETH | SR 1/10 $191.460.054 ETH
Patrik Schick - Fwd, age 25
Czech international Schick hit nine goals (1 assist) in limited minutes last season, playing 1,866 across 29 appearances. He had previously hit double-figures for RB Leipzig (10 goals, 2 assists) in his age 23 season and Sampdoria (11g, 4a) back in 2016-17, his age 20 year. Three starts, 258 minutes and two goals to start this season suggests that this could be, at long last, his dominate chance to hit a big, big number. Last season’s top scorer, Lucas Alario (11 goals), is still sidelined with an injury, giving Schick the chance to solidify his spot. Limited $200.96 0.053 ETH | Rare $1,042.68 0.267 ETH | SR 1/10 $4,336.91 1.210 ETH.
His Unique 2021-22 closes Sunday 12:00 CET 6:00am EST
Moussa Diaby - Fwd, age 22
Since leaving PSG for Germany, Diaby has evolved into a goal-creating force. five goals with five assists in his debut season (2019-20) evolved into four goals with 11 assists last term. This year the 22 year old has played three from three, tallying two goals and an assist already. He is not just aged 22, he has that early July birthday (July 7) which means he has this year and next at U23 eligibility in Sorare plus the all-important extra year of U23 while playing in his age 24 season.
Whatever else happens in the squad Diaby, who made 28 starts last year, will remain a vital part of the attack. Limited $197.17 0.052 ETH | Rare $1,731.62 0.440 ETH | SR 1/10 $8,170.89 2.310 ETH
Lucas Alario - Fwd, age 28
Alario continues to suffer ill-timed injuries, setting back his progression at Leverkusen. Last season he was on fire before a knee injury cost him dearly.
Between September and November, "Goalario" was in red hot form, scoring 10 goals across all competitions, including an impeccable league run with 7 goals in 4 games between Matchday 4 and Matchday 7.
Nine, nine, seven and 11 goals in his four seasons with Leverkusen. But these are coming in very limited starts - 17, 11, 11 and 12. That makes his potential extremely boom/bust.
At these prices and with this SO5 scoring record, he’s worth a punt. Limited $15.19 0.004 ETH | Rare $208.42 0.059 ETH | SR 1/10 $757.43 0.214 ETH