The man @SorareUSA is back to assist on another Major League Soccer column, this time assessing the potential of a bunch of U23 eligible players. While this is a collaboration between Richard and me, we’re borrowing heavily from the keen insights of a pair of MLS writers that you frequently see quoted here: @TomBogert and Matthew Doyle aka @MattDoyle76.
The two writers and podcasters cover MLS extensively and their article 22 Under 22 presented by BODYARMOR is quality. Richard and I don’t cover all 55 players that they do, but we have put together a quick sheet where you can check out the Sorare SO5 scoring for each one, in the same seven tiers that Tom and Matt use.
You know what they say, good fantasy writers borrow, great fantasy writers steal. Picasso, man, that guy was ahead of his time.
One of the reasons we’re not using all of Tom and Matt’s list is because there has already been a lot written about U23 eligible players including recent scouting reports. Richard and I also covered both Mamadou Fall (LAFC) and Talles Magno (NYCFC) in the last article we did for this stack.
The other bit worth calling out is that Sorare prices are influenced by established credible writers covering them, just as Tom and Matt do here. That is doubly true for U23 Sorare talent and in the MLS, which is the largest of the Sorare-scored leagues to play through the summer. While players like Gaga Slonina (Chicago Fire FC) and Jesús Ferreira (FC Dallas) are already known commodities - and both have been scouted here multiple times, ahhhh you’re welcome - players further down their list are worth the time to scout because if/when they pop on the pitch, their prices will have a corresponding jump.
The Money Tier
Where I start to get very interested in the possible fortunes of high-end, youth talent. In the second tier of the MLS 22 Under 22 are eight names, several I’ve mentioned here before. But only two of those eight names have current prices over 0.200, just Thiago Almada and Alan Velasco are priced higher than CF Montréal’s Ismaël Koné (0.197 Ξ).
Let’s take the two young attackers first as Thiago Almada, the 21 year old Atlanta United midfielder, has a All Around Score average of 13.5 and has appeared in eight of ATL’s 10 matches (6 starts), scoring one and assisting another. He’s newly arrived with a massive deal through 2025, and his prices reflect his potential, current role in the team, and commitment from the Five Stripes. The AAS is the third highest among the 55 players on the list, and we know that will increase as he matures in the team.
If you’re looking or a lower priced option than Almada (above), Orlando City’s Cesar Araujo plays the same position, owns an AAS 13.1 and a price of 0.187 Ξ.
The Uruguan is not a like for like comparison as his central midfield role with Orlando City does not see him as involved in the attack as Almada, but the two players only three weeks apart in age and Araujo has started all 11 of Orlando’s MLS matches since he arrived from Montevideo Wanderer.
Alan Velasco, the 19 year old Dallas forward hasn’t appeared for Argentina except at the U-17 level, but has been destroying MLS defenses since arrivals. Two goals, two assists in 600’ of MLS action have his price juiced to 0.720; I can’t hate the price as his Decisive contributions are solid and his age + July birthday keep him in U23s until June 30, 2027 and he’s on an initial four-year deal just signed in Winter 2022.
The underlying numbers (1.0 xG, 0.5 xA) are a bit concerning for sustained Decisive production, but the eight appearances (7 starts) help offset any potential downside by limiting DNPs.
The rest of this tier are value plays based on their age and upside. None may return significant value this year except Tolkin, but all of these names are worth following and acquiring:
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, M/F Toronto FC (0.173 Ξ)
Cade Cowell, M/F San Jose Earthquakes (0.167 Ξ)
Julian Araujo, D LA Galaxy (0.141 Ξ)
John Tolkin, D New York Red Bulls (0.163 Ξ)
Leon Flach, M Philadelphia Union (0.113 Ξ)
It’s really surprising that Cade Cowell has seen such a significant price fall, despite the team announcing they had signed him to an extension through 2025 with an option for 2026. The old management were clearly torn between letting the kid run wild, and nurturing his development in a constructive, organized way. He did make 33 appearance last season, but only 14 starts, and scored five goals with five assists. This year has been more of the same on the starts (5) and appearances (9) but his production cratered.
Cowell’s non-penalty xG+xA/90’ dropped from 0.43 last term to 0.12 this year. Meanwhile his Rare price has dropped from 0.3 to 0.167 in the span of a month. He’s U23 until 2028 - that’s five more seasons after this one.
The bottom three players on that list are not big scorers currently and the wingback position is boom/bust in Sorare under the current scoring so both Araujo and Tolkin are going to have good matches and bad but both of them are actually better options than Leon Flach. I think Flach is going to be a good real life player and his continued development is key to this generation of Philly talent evolving into title contenders. What I do not think is that Flach’s game will evolve into SO5 gold any time in the next half decade.
17 year old Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty will hit age 18 in June, the worst of all months to have a birthday. But the kid is tipped for massive success and has already demonstrated significant skill and ability to capitalize on potential.
Real Life vs. SO5 Reality
It’s in the third tier that the separation between real life value and current/future SO5 value really have some serious disagreement. I don’t need to write any more words about Obed Vargas, but I will! The kid is a legitimate minor child and just won a major international trophy with Seattle. He’s 16 and not eligible for a Rookie card this year because he made a league start last year. His price at 0.192 Ξ is largely a function of his age and the fact that he already has five starts in the league this season. There is scant downside to picking up one of his cards because the ROI will be at least cost over the life of the card…also known as 2022-2042 (or later). Seriously, do the math on how old you’ll be in 2042. And then remember it’s entirely likely Obed Vargas is still earning real minutes in a Sorare-scored league that year (he’ll be 36).
Tossing David Ochoa (0.799 Ξ) and Thiago Andrade (0.900 Ξ) into the same tier as Tayvon Gray (0.115 Ξ) and Brian Gutierrez (0.070 Ξ) and you can easily see how the markets aren’t exactly aligned with the potential upside of these players career expectations.
For NYCFC’s Thiago Andrade that high price isn’t only anchored by his age and expectations following the arrival from Brazil’s Bahia.
Last season he scored four goals with an assist; this year he already has four goals and an assist in just 445’, doubling his Decisive pace. His teammate, Tayvon Gray, is only 19 and had the misfortune of being born in the Brox and not Brazil so, you know, less hype there. Which is unfair as this is his third season as part of the squad, with nine starts and counting for the right back. That position is one which was previously held down by Anton Tinnerholm, but the 31 year old has struggled with injuries of late and Gray is the player to hold down right side of the defense.
If you’re looking to invest in a right back, Philadelphia Union has Nathan Harriel (0.291 Ξ) who has started nine matches this season.
The 21 year old has an L15:52 and an average All Around Score of 14.5, which is quite good and even better when you consider the age. By contrast, NYCFC’s Gray has an L15:43 and an AAS average of 4.3.
Ben Bender of Charlotte FC was discussed in the last post we wrote on players getting their first Sorare cards and it looks like we were dead on, as early bidding has the 21 year old midfielder already priced his floor at 0.300 Ξ for Rare.
For half that price you can pull an Efraín Álvarez, the 19 year old LA Galaxy midfielder who is currently priced in at 0.157 Ξ.
The key difference between Bender (above) and Alvarez, for this season at least, is the playing time. Bender has his job locked down in an attacking role where he’s added a goal and three assists to a team that will need that type of goal threat; Alvarez has made 10 appearances but has only six starts and only four full 90’ all with just a goal to show.
The other side of it is the raw scoring. For Bender he’s on just 8.8 AAS score average but obviously the current hot streak on Decisive scores - while Alvarez has an AAS of 6.4 points and an L40:43, which is the highest of his three SorareData splits. Alvarez is also already a full Mexico international…so the trend you need to choose between is current performance vs. club and country confidence in a younger player with significant upside who cost half as much while being a couple years younger.
Seriously, Alvarez is 19 with a handful of caps with El Tri and can be bought right now for L: 0.0145 Ξ | R: 0.157 Ξ.
Cesar Araujo, age 21 (M, Orlando City SC) 0.187 Ξ
Brian Gutierrez, age 18 (D, Chicago Fire FC) 0.074 Ξ
The Rest of the Best
I highly recommend reading the 22 Under 22 article, which includes an entire tier of players “on the bubble” including three Philadelphia Union players I love. That whole tier will get an entire write-up and more than a few of the other names will get covered as the season unfolds including Jackson Hopkins, M D.C. United (age 17), Jude Wellings, M Real Salt Lake (age 16, Rookie) and Thor Ulfarsson, F Houston Dynamo FC (age 21). Hopkins doesn’t have Sorare cards currently, but the other two do. Wellings is obviously a longer-term play, while Ulfarsson is currently a super sub for Houston with 10 appearances, no starts and just 183’ of goal free soccer so far this season.